Common institutional investors and the quality of management earnings forecasts-Empirical and machine learning evidences.

Based on the data of the Chinese A-share listed firms in China Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchange from 2014 to 2021, this article explores the relationship between common institutional investors and the quality of management earnings forecasts. The study used the multiple linear regression model and empirically found that common institutional investors positively impact the precision of earnings forecasts. This article also uses graph neural networks to predict the precision of earnings forecasts. Our findings have shown that common institutional investors form external supervision over restricting management to release a wide width of earnings forecasts, which helps to improve the risk warning function of earnings forecasts and promote the sustainable development of information disclosure from management in the Chinese capital market. One of the marginal contributions of this paper is that it enriches the literature related to the economic consequences of common institutional shareholding. Then, the neural network method used to predict the quality of management forecasts enhances the research method of institutional investors and the behavior of management earnings forecasts. Thirdly, this paper calls for strengthening information sharing and circulation among institutional investors to reduce information asymmetry between investors and management.

Skilled Nursing Facility Participation in a Voluntary Medicare Bundled Payment Program: Association With Facility Financial Performance.

IMPORTANCE: Model 3 of the Bundled Payments for Care Improvement (BPCI) is an alternative payment model in which an entity takes accountability for the episode costs. It is unclear how BPCI affected the overall skilled nursing facility (SNF) financial performance and the differences between facilities with differing racial/ethnic and socioeconomic status (SES) composition of the residents. OBJECTIVE: The objective of this study was to determine associations between BPCI participation and SNF finances and across-facility differences in SNF financial performance. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: A longitudinal study spanning 2010-2017, based on difference-in-differences analyses for 575 persistent-participation SNFs, 496 dropout SNFs, and 13,630 eligible nonparticipating SNFs. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Inflation-adjusted operating expenses, revenues, profit, and profit margin. RESULTS: BPCI was associated with reductions of $0.63 million in operating expenses and $0.57 million in operating revenues for the persistent-participation group but had no impact on the dropout group compared with nonparticipating SNFs. Among persistent-participation SNFs, the BPCI-related declines were $0.74 million in operating expenses and $0.52 million in operating revenues for majority-serving SNFs; and $1.33 and $0.82 million in operating expenses and revenues, respectively, for non-Medicaid-dependent SNFs. The between-facility SES gaps in operating expenses were reduced (differential difference-in-differences estimate=$1.09 million). Among dropout SNFs, BPCI showed mixed effects on across-facility SES and racial/ethnic differences in operating expenses and revenues. The BPCI program showed no effect on operating profit measures. CONCLUSIONS: BPCI led to reduced operating expenses and revenues for SNFs that participated and remained in the program but had no effect on operating profit indicators and mixed effects on SES and racial/ethnic differences across SNFs.

Financial Profit in Medicine: A Position Paper From the American College of Physicians.

The steady growth of corporate interest and influence in the health care sector over the past few decades has created a more business-oriented health care system in the United States, helping to spur for-profit and private equity investment. Proponents say that this trend makes the health care system more efficient, encourages innovation, and provides financial stability to ensure access and improve care. Critics counter that such moves favor profit over care and erode the patient-physician relationship. American College of Physicians (ACP) underscores that physicians are permitted to earn a reasonable income as long as they are fulfilling their fiduciary responsibility to provide high-quality, appropriate care within the guardrails of medical professionalism and ethics. In this position paper, ACP considers the effect of mergers, integration, private equity investment, nonprofit hospital requirements, and conversions from nonprofit to for-profit status on patients, physicians, and the health care system.

Managerial overconfidence in capital structure decisions and its link to aggregate demand: An agent-based model perspective.

OBJECTIVE: This study aims to connect two strands of the psychology and economics literature, i.e., behavioural finance and agent-based macroeconomics, to assess the impact of managerial overconfidence at the micro and macro levels of the economy as a whole. METHOD: We build a macroeconomic stock-flow consistent agent-based model that is calibrated for the specific case of Poland to explore whether the overconfidence of top corporate managers in the context of their initial capital structure decisions is detrimental for the firms being managed in this way, the financial market dynamics, and the selected macroeconomic indicators. We model heterogeneous firms with different capital structure decision criteria depending on their degree of managerial overconfidence. Our model also includes a complete macroeconomic closure with aggregated households, capital producers, banking, and a public sector. RESULTS: We find that firms with overconfident managers outperform in terms of investment and size but are also more fragile, thereby making them more likely to default. Finally, we run policy shocks and show that while investors' flight to liquidity creates financial turmoil and increases the probability of default. CONCLUSIONS: This paper contributes to the knowledge base by linking behavioural corporate finance and agent-based macroeconomics. In general, the excess overconfidence on the micro level, either an increase in the proportion of overconfident firms or a higher degree of overconfidence among managers, has a strong destabilizing impact on the economy as a whole on the macro level.

Multistage allocation problem for Mexican pension funds.

The problem of multistage allocation is solved using the Target Date Fund (TDF) strategy subject to a set of restrictions which model the latest regulatory framework of the Mexican pension system. The investment trajectory or glide-path for a representative set of 14 assets of heterogeneous characteristics is studied during a 161 quarters long horizon. The expected returns are estimated by the GARCH(1,1), EGARCH(1,1), GJR-GARCH(1,1) models, and a stationary block bootstrap model is used as a benchmark for comparison. A fixed historical covariance matrix and a multi-period estimation of DCC-GARCH(1,1) are also considered as inputs of the objective function. Forecasts are evaluated through their asymmetric dependencies as quantified by the transfer entropy measure. In general, we find very similar glide-paths so that the overall structure of the investment is maintained and does not rely on the particular forecasting model. However, the GARCH(1,1) under a fixed historical covariance matrix exhibits the highest Sharpe ratio and in this sense represents the best trade-off between wealth and risk. As expected, the initial stages of the obtained glide-paths are initially dominated by risky assets and gradually transition into bonds towards the end oof the trajectory. Overall, the methodology proposed here is computationally efficient and displays the desired properties of a TDF strategy in realistic settings.

Applied systems thinking: The impact of system optimization strategies on financial and quality performance in a team-based simulation.

At its core, this research was undertaken to explore the extent to which system optimization leadership strategies such as innovation, collaboration, and data-driven decision-making affect financial and quality performance in organizations. A quasi-experimental pretest-posttest research design was used to examine the increase or decrease in system performance as a result of treatment in the form of a systems thinking workshop and strategy discussion. The application of three-core system strategies lead to significant gains in financial performance across all teams, and an increase in quality performance in all but one team. In addition to an increase in performance, this research also revealed the tendency of social systems to reflexively sub-optimize their performance and at times lose focus on higher order system goals. Helpful recommendations for leadership practice and future research are presented with a view to helping optimize whole systems and not solely their parts.

Divergências metodológicas dos Tribunais de Contas e seus efeitos sobre as regras de despesa com pessoal / Divergencias metodológicas de las Cortes de Cuentas y sus efectos en el gasto con funcionarios públicos / Courts of accounts divergent methodologies and its impacts on personnel expenditure rules

Resumo O presente artigo expõe as divergências entre as metodologias adotadas pelos Tribunais de Contas e as apresentadas no Manual de Demonstrativos Fiscais (MDF), elaborado pela Secretaria do Tesouro Nacional (STN), para o cálculo das despesas com pessoal, segundo a Lei Complementar no 101, de 4 de maio de 2000, ou Lei de Responsabilidade Fiscal (LRF). Avalia-se, portanto, como as divergências metodológicas influenciam no cumprimento dos limites das despesas com pessoal dos próprios Tribunais de Contas, a partir dos Relatórios de Gestão Fiscal (RGFs) referentes aos terceiros quadrimestres dos anos de 2016 a 2018, comparando com o disposto no MDF e com as informações inseridas no Sistema de Informações Contábeis e Fiscais do Setor Público Brasileiro (Siconfi). Demonstrar-se-á que alguns Tribunais de Contas ultrapassariam os limites de despesa com pessoal se fosse adotada a metodologia do MDF, o que indica a necessidade de convergência de regras para evitar que a contabilidade criativa de alguns órgãos de controle externo contribua para o desequilíbrio fiscal do ente federativo.

Resumen El presente artículo expone las divergencias metodológicas entre las Cortes de Cuentas de los entes subnacionales brasileños y la Secretaría del Tesoro Nacional, del Ministerio de Economía, acerca de los gastos presupuestarios con funcionarios públicos, según la Ley de Responsabilidad Fiscal. Presenta cómo las divergencias metodológicas permiten que las Cortes de Cuentas cumplan sus límites de gastos con sus funcionarios, a partir de demostrativos fiscales de 2016 a 2018, comparándolos con la metodología del Manual para Demostrativos Fiscales publicado por el Ministerio de Economía. Se propone demostrar que las Cortes de Cuentas excederían los límites de gastos con empleados si fueran aplicados los patrones del gobierno central, lo que indica la necesidad de convergencia para evitar que la contabilidad creativa de algunas Cortes contribuya al desequilibrio fiscal subnacional.

Abstract This article describes how Brazilian Courts of Accounts at the subnational level diverge with the National Secretariat of Treasury of the Ministry of Economy, on how to measure the personnel expenditure cap, a rule according to the Fiscal Responsibility Law of 2001. Since the Courts of Accounts can decide how to measure the personnel expenditure rule in their jurisdictions, the article describes how those decisions, presented in the Fiscal Management Report from 2016 to 2018, diverge with the federal standards described in the Manual of Fiscal Reports (MDF) and compiled in the System of Public Sector Fiscal and Accounting Information (Siconfi). It concludes that some Courts of Accounts would exceed the personnel expenditure cap if they adopted the federal standards described by the central government, which indicates the existence of fiscal accountability practices with a contagious effect upon subnational entities under its jurisdiction, increasing the risks of fiscal imbalances in the federation.

Safeguarding cancer research funding by European charities amidst the COVID-19 pandemic.

The COVID-19 outbreak has affected cancer research and cancer care. European cancer charities need to reconsider strategies for safeguarding income and supporting cancer researchers, in times when sustaining cancer research funding is more crucial than ever.

Sustainable and conventional banking in Europe.

At the end of the 20th century a new banking model, the so-called ethical banking, emerged becoming the maximum exponent of a socially responsible investment. The financial crisis in 2008 led to a distrust of the conventional financial system and consequently investors began to look with interest this new banking, which only invests in ethical activities and products, with social and environmental criteria, total transparency and a democratic management. The aim of this article is to analyze the economic structure of ethical banking, compared to that of conventional banking, by paying attention to its liquidity, coverage and solvency. Specifically, We compare the financial statements of Triodos Bank, the main European ethical bank belonging to the Global Alliance for Banking on Values, with two of the main conventional banks of each of the five countries in Europe in which it operates. To do this, we apply a financial and economic analysis to the period from 2015 to 2018, the means difference test and analysis of variance on an array of financial ratios and, finally, probit regressions. The results reveal that ethical banking is growing more than conventional banking and it presents greater liquidity and solvency, although, in general terms, its profitability is not higher. In conclusion, both savers and investors have guarantees that their savings are invested not only in a responsible but also in a confident way in ethical banking.

Assessing Executive Nurse Leaders' Financial Literacy Level: A Mixed-Methods Study.

OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the reliability and validity of the Financial Management Competency Self-assessment (FMCA) in executive nurse leaders (ENLs) and to determine how ENLs develop and apply financial knowledge. BACKGROUND: Financial literacy (FL) helps in planning, implementing, and evaluating fiscal decisions, but many ENLs report weaknesses in this core competency. METHODS: An explanatory-sequential mixed-methods study was conducted to psychometrically test the FMCA and explore how ENLs with different levels of FL develop and apply financial knowledge. Eligible participants (n = 178) were recruited from a population of ENLs across the United States. RESULTS: The test-retest reliability of the FMCA was good (mean difference, 6.80; 95% confidence interval). Correlations between domain scores (P < .01) and the overall score (Cronbach's α = .99) demonstrated the reliability and validity of the instrument. The cutoff scores were fair indicators of different levels of FL in ENLs (P < .001). Self-awareness, gaps in hospital and graduate nursing education, application of financial knowledge, and a micro versus macro view emerged as important themes in the qualitative analysis. CONCLUSION: FMCA reliability and validity were established. FMCA cutoff scores were established to determine FL level, and the ENL lived experience described in financial knowledge development and application.

Enhancing financial security of female sex workers through a community-led intervention in India: Evidence from a longitudinal survey.

INTRODUCTION: Community-led organizations (COs) have been an integral part of HIV prevention programs to address the socio-economic and structural vulnerabilities faced by female sex workers (FSWs). The current study examines whether strengthening of community-led organizations and community collectivization have been instrumental in reducing the financial vulnerability and empowering FSWs in terms of their self-efficacy, confidence, and individual agency in India. DATA AND METHODS: This study used a panel data of 2085 FSWs selected from 38 COs across five states of India. Two rounds of data (Round 1 in 2015 and Round 2 in 2017) were collected among FSWs. Data were collected both at CO and individual level. CO level data was used to assess the CO strength. Individual level data was used to measure financial security, community collectivization, and individual empowerment. RESULTS: There was a significant improvement in CO strength and community collectivization from Round 1 to Round 2. High CO strength has led to improved financial security among FSWs (R2: 85% vs. R1: 51%, AOR: 2.5; 95% CI: 1.5-4.1) from Round 1 to Round 2. High collective efficacy and community ownership have improved the financial security of FSWs during the inter-survey period. Further, the improvement in financial security in the inter-survey period led to increased or sustained individual empowerment (in terms of self-confidence, self-efficacy, and individual agency) among FSWs. CONCLUSIONS: Institutional strengthening and community mobilization programs are key to address the structural issues and the decrease of financial vulnerability among FSWs. In addition, enhanced financial security is very important to sustain or improve the individual empowerment of FSWs. Further attention is needed to sustain the existing community advocacy and engagement systems to address the vulnerabilities faced by marginalized populations and build their empowerment.

[Cannabis-derived medicines for the treatment of chronic pain : Problems resulting from medical appraisals in the experience of the Medical Advisory Board of the Statutory Health Insurance Funds North]. / Cannabispräparate für die Therapie chronischer Schmerzen : Problemfelder bei medizinischen Begutachtungen aus der Erfahrung des MDK Nord.

BACKGROUND: On March 10th 2017, the law amending narcotic and other regulations was expanded, thereby allowing physicians, irrespective of their specialization, to prescribe cannabis-derived medicines as magistral formulas or proprietary medicinal products at the expense of the German statutory health insurance (GKV). First prescription requires approval from the respective health insurance, which in turn commissions the Medical Advisory Board of the Statutory Health Insurance Funds (MDK) to prepare a medico-legal report. OBJECTIVES: Since § 31 Para. 6 of the German Social Code, Book V (SGB V) came into effect, a multitude of imponderables have been reported regarding reimbursement. Based on the experience of the MDK Nord, problems within the fields of patients, physicians and cannabis-derived medicines are illustrated. MATERIAL AND METHODS: Considering current literature, a retrospective review was conducted including approximately 2200 applications for reimbursement received in 2018 from patients residing in Hamburg and Schleswig-Holstein. RESULTS: A relevant problem within the field of patients resulted from the lack of a specific definition of the term "severe (chronic) disease". Although this term is mentioned several times in SGB V, it is not put into concrete terms. Circumstances like multimorbidity are not taken into account. Another problem consisted in an irreproducible anticipation of treatment with cannabis-derived medicines. Within the field of physicians, a major problem was caused by missing, fragmentary or inconsistent information regarding disease and/or therapy. Hence, initially, almost one-third of all applications could not be appraised. Amongst various cannabis-derived medicines, dried flowers were found to be the most problematic regarding doses and effective levels. Notably, a marked increase in numbers of applications for reimbursement of therapy with pure cannabidiol was noted. DISCUSSION: Numerous problems reported elsewhere and relating to prescription of cannabis-derived medicines were also observed by the MDK Nord. Many prescriptions reflected an uncertainty regarding therapeutic use of cannabis-derived medicines. Thus, one should consider restricting the prescription of cannabis-derived medicines to selected specialists. It should be noted that, in individual cases, e.g., patients suffering from neuropathic pain, treatment with cannabis-derived medicines seems to be a reasonable therapeutic option taking into account the risks and benefits.

Strategies to avoid blacklisting: The case of statistics on money laundering.

Financial and legal entities (e.g. banks, casinos, notaries etc.) have to report money laundering suspicions. Countries' engagement in fighting money laundering is evaluated-among others-with statistics on how often these suspicions are reported. Lack of compliance can result in economically harmful blacklisting. Nevertheless, these blacklists repeatedly become empty-in what is known as the emptying blacklist paradox. We develop a principal-agent model with intermediate agents and show that non-harmonized statistics can lead to strategic reporting to avoid blacklisting, and explain the emptying blacklist paradox. We recommend the harmonization of the standards to report suspicion of money laundering.

Cost Analysis of 3 Concurrent Public Health Response Events: Financial Impact of Measles Outbreak, Super Bowl Surveillance, and Ebola Surveillance in Maricopa County.

OBJECTIVE: To generate estimates of the direct costs of mounting simultaneous emergency preparedness and response activities to respond to 3 major public health events. DESIGN: A cost analysis was performed from the perspective of the public health department using real-time activity diaries and retrospective time and activity self-reporting, wage and fringe benefit data, and financial records to track costs. SETTING: Maricopa County Department of Public Health (MCDPH) in Arizona. The nation's third largest local public health jurisdiction, MCDPH is the only local health agency serving Maricopa's more than 4 000 000 residents. Responses analyzed included activities related to a measles outbreak with 2 confirmed cases, enhanced surveillance activities surrounding Super Bowl XLIX, and ongoing Ebola monitoring, all between January 22, 2015, and March 4, 2015. PARTICIPANTS: Time data were sought from all MCDPH staff who participated in activities related to any of the 3 relevant responses. In addition, time data were sought from partners at the state health department and a community hospital involved in response activities. Time estimates were received from 128 individuals (response rate 88%). MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: Time and cost to MCDPH for each response and overall. RESULTS: Total MCDPH costs for measles-, Super Bowl-, and Ebola-related activities from January 22, 2015, through March 4, 2015, were $224 484 (>5800 hours). The majority was for personnel ($203 743) and the costliest response was measles ($122 626 in personnel costs). In addition, partners reported working more than 700 hours for these 3 responses during this period. CONCLUSIONS: Funding for public health departments remains limited, yet public health responses can be cost- and time-intensive. To effectively plan for future public health responses, it may be necessary to share experiences and financial lessons learned from similar public health responses. External partnerships represent a key contribution for responses such as those examined. It can be expensive for local public health departments to mount effective responses, especially when multiple responses occur simultaneously.

A general equilibrium approach to pricing volatility risk.

This paper provides a general equilibrium approach to pricing volatility. Existing models (e.g., ARCH/GARCH, stochastic volatility) take a statistical approach to estimating volatility, volatility indices (e.g., CBOE VIX) use a weighted combination of options, and utility based models assume a specific type of preferences. In contrast we treat volatility as an asset and price it using the general equilibrium state pricing framework. Our results show that the general equilibrium volatility method developed in this paper provides superior forecasting ability for realized volatility and serves as an effective fear gauge. We demonstrate the flexibility and generality of our approach by pricing downside risk and upside opportunity. Finally, we show that the superior forecasting ability of our approach generates significant economic value through volatility timing.

The predictive ability of the expected utility-entropy based fund rating approach: A comparison investigation with Morningstar ratings in US.

In this paper, we propose an alternative fund rating approach based on the Expected Utility-Entropy (EU-E) decision model, in which the measure of risk for a risky action was axiomatically developed by Luce et al. We examine the ability of this approach as an alternative fund rating approach for its ability to potentially mitigate the drawbacks of the risk measure used in Morningstar ratings, and investigate the ability of the EU-E model based and Morningstar ratings to predict mutual fund performance. Overall, we find that the risk measure used in both models plays a defining role in their ability to predict future fund performance, and that the EU-E model can effectively consider the behavioral decisions of an investor.

The Financial and Business Analysis Capacities of the State and Local Public Health Workforce.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the financial competencies and skills of the state and local public health workforce. DESIGN: Analysis of the 2017 wave of the Public Health Workforce Interests and Needs Survey (PH WINS). Bivariate statistics and logistic regression models identified correlates and predictors of financial skills and skills gaps in the workforce. SETTING: PH WINS was fielded to a nationally representative sample of all staff at all local health departments serving 25 000 or more persons and all state health agency staff. PARTICIPANTS: A total of 47 604 people responded to PH WINS in 2017 (overall response rate 48%). MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Financial competencies were measured in 3 areas: public health program and service delivery, public health agency funding, and public health agency business planning. RESULTS: A moderate percentage of the state and local public health workforce (36.7%-40.6%) reported that financial skills were not applicable to their job. Skill levels tended to be modestly but significantly higher for the state health workforce than for the local health workforce. Correlates of financial proficiency and skills gaps varied for the 3 areas assessed and by state versus local setting. In general, administrators, managers and executives, older individuals, and persons working in decentralized or shared departments tended to have higher levels of financial skills proficiency. Persons working in clinical roles, supervisors, newer managers, and persons reporting higher levels of burnout were more likely to report a skills gap. CONCLUSIONS: There are areas of notable strengths in state and local public health workforce financial skills. Yet portions of the workforce that may have been subjected to newer financial training approaches did not consistently report higher financial skills. Findings suggest areas for further improvement in the financial competency of the state and local public health workforce.

A neo-institutional analysis of the hidden interaction between the Israeli Supreme Court and the Ministry of Finance: the right to healthcare services.

BACKGROUND: Under structural conditions of non-governability, most players in the policy arena in Israel turn to two main channels that have proven effective in promoting the policies they seek: the submission of petitions to the High Court of Justice and making legislative amendments through the Economic Arrangements Law initiated by the Ministry of Finance. Nevertheless, an analysis of the principal trends emerging from the High Court of Justice rulings and legislative amendments through the Economic Arrangements Law indicates that these channels are open to influence, primarily by forces that are essentially neo-liberal. Little is known about the effects of these trends on the right to healthcare services, which in Israel has not been legislated as an independent constitutional law in Basic Laws. METHODS: We use four major legal cases decided by the Supreme Court of Israel in the past 10 years where the Court reviewed new legislative initiatives proposed by the Economic Arrangements Law in the area of healthcare. We utilize an institutional approach in our analysis. RESULTS: A neo-institutional analysis of the legal cases demonstrates that petitions against the Economic Arrangements Law in the area of healthcare services have been denied, even though the Court uses strong rhetoric against that law and the government more generally in addressing issues that concern access to healthcare services and reforms in the healthcare system. This move strengthens the trend toward a neo-liberal public policy and significantly weakens the legal protection of the right to healthcare services. CONCLUSION: In deciding petitions against the Economic Arrangements Law in the area of healthcare, the Supreme Court allows the Ministry of Finance to be a dominant player in the formation of public policy. In doing so, it may be promoting a goal of strengthening its position as a political institution that aspires to increase the public's trust in the judiciary and especially in the Supreme Court itself, in addition to exercising judicial restraint and allowing more leeway to the executive and legislative branches more generally.